The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND The selection methodology for UK general practice is designed to accommodate several thousand applicants per year and targets six core attributes identified in a multi-method job-analysis study AIM To evaluate the predictive validity of selection methods for entry into postgraduate training, comprising a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. DESIGN AND SETTING A three-part longitudinal predictive validity study of selection into training for UK general practice. METHOD In sample 1, participants were junior doctors applying for training in general practice (n = 6824). In sample 2, participants were GP registrars 1 year into training (n = 196). In sample 3, participants were GP registrars sitting the licensing examination after 3 years, at the end of training (n = 2292). The outcome measures include: assessor ratings of performance in a selection centre comprising job simulation exercises (sample 1); supervisor ratings of trainee job performance 1 year into training (sample 2); and licensing examination results, including an applied knowledge examination and a 12-station clinical skills objective structured clinical examination (OSCE; sample 3). RESULTS Performance ratings at selection predicted subsequent supervisor ratings of job performance 1 year later. Selection results also significantly predicted performance on both the clinical skills OSCE and applied knowledge examination for licensing at the end of training. CONCLUSION In combination, these longitudinal findings provide good evidence of the predictive validity of the selection methods, and are the first reported for entry into postgraduate training. Results show that the best predictor of work performance and training outcomes is a combination of a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Implications for selection methods for all postgraduate specialties are considered.